I predicted before that the Democratic race for the nomination will be a bloody fight between the Angry Left, led by Howard dean, and the moderates. I initially expected Wes Clark would lead the moderates, with the blessing of Terry McAuliffe and the Clinton machine; that appears to ahve fizzled. But I fully expect a more moderate voice to emerge -- Leiberman, Gephardt, or Kerry -- and the Clintonistas will circle that candidate by default.

Michael Barone sees it similarly:

Dean has a wide lead over John Kerry in New Hampshire and runs at or near the top in national polls. So Dean's competitors have started to take a different tack. At the November 15 Jefferson-Jackson Day dinner in Des Moines, Kerry and John Edwards said that the party needs a nominee with answers, not anger. Gephardt and Joe Lieberman have struck similar notes. They hope to be the un-Dean--the candidate who survives Iowa, New Hampshire, and the gantlet of February 3 contests and then faces off against Dean in the big states starting with Michigan February 7. Dean campaign manager Joe Trippi expects that someone will emerge as the un-Dean. And it's not clear that in the big states Bush haters will outnumber more ambivalent Democrats. Either Dean or the un-Dean, whoever he turns out to be, could win.

But Democrats will have a problem either way. If the un-Dean wins, Dean's enthusiastic supporters will be bitterly disappointed. Some will not want to vote for a Democrat who voted for military action in Iraq. The Green Party nominee, whether Ralph Nader runs or not, could easily exceed the 3 percent Nader won in 2000. That would hurt with the electorate this closely divided. Just ask Al Gore.

(Read the whole thing.)

I'll make another prediction (and a 100% refund if it doesn't come true): despite the conflict within the Democratic Party, the decisive moment in the conflict will be the Republican convention.

Why? The location, of course: New York City. Just imagine the protests. Imagine the counter-protests. Were Giuliani still in charge (as many will wistfully lament, surely), order would be imposed, and none too gently; but Bloomberg is going to want to seem kinder and gentler than his predecessor -- an approach which will work about as well for him as for Bush père.

Picture the mayhem outside, while the Republicans put on a good show, and do their best to look reasonable, moderate, and in touch with Middle America inside. All of this within shouting distance of the WTC site. How do you think that will play in Peoria?

The Democrats will have to either distance themselves from the protestors -- alienating their most enthusiastic supporters, driving more Angry Left voters to the Green Party -- or else defend the indefensible, and give up all hope of winning over the moderates and independents.

I'll certainly grant that Howard Dean is no pushover, and has the opportunity to run towards the center on the basis of his record, once the nomination is sewn up. But I think the election ahead is essentially unwinnable for the Democrats, mostly because they are so deeply divided, especially over this supremely important issue.