Science fiction writer Orson Scott Card writes an excellent essay on Iraq, Korea, the differences between the two, and why we won't be invading North Korea.

I'm not sure that China would go to war to defend North Korea; no doubt they'd pitch a fit publicly, accompanied by more saber-rattling with respect to Taiwan. But even they must realize what a dangerous lunatic Kim Jong Il is, and would privately breathe a sigh of relief if he were deposed -- especially if the U.S. reduced its troop commitment to the Korean peninsula after reunification.

But I could be wrong; perhaps Card has a better handle on the situation than I do. Even if all-out war is improbable, the stakes are awfully high to be betting against the merely "improbable".

Given that the title of his blog is taken from one of Card's novels, and Card here seems to express views similar to those of the reviled "warbloggers", I wonder what Demosthenes has to say about this?