Perhaps everyone knew about this except me, but there will soon be a major change in the leadership of China, as Jiang Zemin steps down from his posts as President of China and Secretary-General of the Chinese Communist Party.

Jiang is expected to hand over his title as party secretary-general to his vice president, Hu Jintao, at a congress that starts Nov. 8. That step is expected to begin a process of installing a new generation of leaders in China's most sweeping change of government in more than a decade.

Hu Jintao was apparently hand-picked by Deng Xioaping on his way out the door, to be Jiang's successor. Hu previously served as Party Secretary of the Tibet Autonomous Region, and is responsible from much of the crackdown there in the early 1990's.

The appointment of one of the prime movers in the crackdown on Tibet may portend bad times ahead for the prospects for further reform in China. But Jiang also seems to be moving allies of his own into positions of power (though it remains to be seen whether they are any better); and the forces for change -- mostly financial and demographic realities -- may be beyond the ability of any Chinese leader to do much about.

Is China yesterday's news? The leadership of the Chinese military, at least, appears thoroughly nonplussed that the US doesn't seem to care about them anymore, and has found new playmates in Osama bin Laden and Saddam Hussein.

I left China impressed that China's defense establishment would sooner instigate a cross-strait dust-up than seriously help the United States in the war against international terrorism. Indeed, the terrorist threat is but an annoying distraction from the game of balance-of-power politics. They urgently want to resume full military-to-military contacts and resent any hint that China is no longer central to American foreign policy. For reasons that may relate to defense spending, they would rather be perceived as a growing threat than be ignored. In short, the PLA is concerned about the relative de-emphasis on the China relationship in the United States and is apparently eager not to be deprived of an enemy.

Perhaps the best thing the US can do with respect to China is to pretend to ignore them. With the focus upon the United States as an adversary, the most reactionary forces within the government have more traction; absent that, making money and attracting investment becomes the primary focus. That in turn pushes the country toward reform, the rule of law, and the taste for freedom that comes with entrepreneurship.