October 14, 2002
Saving Bali

Steven Den Beste writes on the damage that the attack in Bali will have on the Indonesian economy, which relies heavily on tourism.

... the entire nation of Indonesia is going to suffer for this, not just the Balinese. Tourism in the entire nation will collapse now, and from what I've been reading, that was as much again as Bali had. All of that is probably dead now.

Overall, it will cost them several billion dollars per year in foreign income that they can't afford to do without. As a result of that, and the expectation that western corporations will be pulling out and foreign investment will dry up, the news reports say that the Indonesian stock market collapsed today and the rupiah is dropping like a stone.

I can think of one thing that might make up the difference. Would Bali, or any other site in Indonesia, be a good place for a US Naval or Air Force base? (Especially given that our bases in the Philippines are closed.)

From a cursory look at a map, I'm not sure. Compared to the old Filipino bases, it would offer easier access to the Indian Ocean (without overflying or flying around Indochina), but a longer haul to China and Taiwan. And depending on what kind of rights we have in Australian bases and ports, it might be entirely superfluous.

And that's leaving aside the task of convincing the governments of both Indonesia (still in denial?) and the United States (we're kind of busy elsewhere).

But it's the only thing I can think of that might keep the Balinese economy from sinking without a trace, and it would make a pretty strong point to the bombers -- rather the opposite effect of what they'd hoped for, I expect.

My main concern is that the Indonesian government may distance itself from the US/Australian side of this war -- gravitating not so much towards the Islamists as towards China.

Posted by Kevin Shaum at October 14, 2002 11:52 PM
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